U.S. Economic Growth to Continue Through 2021

The economic recovery in the U.S. will continue for the rest of 2021, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the Spring 2021 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder for 2021 have strengthened somewhat, compared to December 2020, as there is hope that the corner has been turned on the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic; both manufacturing and services sectors are signaling expansion.

These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Business Survey Committees. The forecast was presented today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, and Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.

Manufacturing Summary
Revenue for 2021 is expected to increase, on average, by 7.2 percent. This is 0.3 percentage point higher than the December 2020 forecast of 6.9 percent, and 8.5 percentage points higher than the 1.3-percent decrease reported for 2020 over 2019. Fifty-nine percent of respondents say that revenues for 2021 will increase, on average, 13.8 percent over 2020. Only eight percent say revenues will decrease, on average, 13 percent, and 33 percent indicate no change. With operating rate at 88.3 percent, an expected capital-expenditures increase of 8.7 percent, an expected increase of 8.1 percent in prices paid for raw materials, and an expected employment increase by 2.8 percent by the end of 2021, manufacturing continues its comeback from the turmoil of 2020. “With all 18 manufacturing-sector industries predicting revenue growth in 2021, panelists forecast that recovery will continue the rest of the year. The sectors’ responses were consistent with the industry-performance reports in the April 2021 Report On Business®,” says Fiore.

All 18 manufacturing industries are expecting increases in revenue in 2021 — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; and Petroleum & Coal Products.

Services Summary
Respondents currently expect a 5.4-percent net increase in overall revenues, which is 3.8 percentage points higher than the 1.6-percent increase forecast in December 2020. Forty-eight percent of respondents say that revenues for 2021 will increase, on average, 15 percent over 2020. Meanwhile, 11 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 16.6 percent, and 41 percent indicate no change. “Services will continue to recover over the rest of 2021. Services companies are currently operating at 89.4 percent of normal capacity. Supply managers have indicated that prices are projected to increase 4.9 percent over the year, reflecting increasing inflation. Employment is projected to increase 2.4 percent. Sixteen of 18 industries are forecasting increased revenues, compared to the 12 industries that predicted increases in December 2020,” says Nieves.

The 16 services industries that expect revenue increases in 2021, listed in order, are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Construction; and Public Administration.

OPERATING RATE

Manufacturing
Purchasing and supply executives report that their companies are operating, on average, at 88.3 percent of normal capacity, 2.6 percentage points higher than the figure reported in December 2020. The nine industries reporting operating-capacity levels above the average rate of 88.3 percent — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Services
Purchasing and supply executives report that their organizations are operating on average, 89.4 percent of normal capacity. This is 2.8 percentage points higher than what was reported in December 2020. The seven industries operating at capacity levels above the average rate of 89.4 percent — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; and Construction.

PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Manufacturing
Production capacity in manufacturing is expected to increase 6.6 percent in 2021. This compares to an increase of 0.5 percent reported for 2020, and a December 2020 projection of an increase of 5.3 percent this year. Forty-four percent of respondents expect capacity increase of, on average, 16.8 percent, 5 percent expect decreases of, on average, 17.3 percent, and 51 percent expect no change. The 16 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2021 — listed in order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Textile Mills; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Paper Products.

Services
The capacity to produce products or provide services in the services sector is expected to increase 2.3 percent in 2021. This compares to an increase of 0.1 percent reported for 2020 and a December 2020 projection of a 3.2 percent increase for this year. Twenty-eight percent of services respondents expect their capacity for 2021 to increase, on average, 11.6 percent, and 4 percent foresee capacity decreasing, on average, 24.2 percent. Sixty-eight percent expect no change in their capacity. The 16 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2021 — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Information; Finance & Insurance; Construction; Retail Trade; Mining and Utilities.

PREDICTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES — 2021 vs. 2020

Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect an 8.7-percent increase in capital expenditures in 2021. This is higher than the 2.4-percent increase for the year forecast by the panel in December 2020. Twenty-seven percent of respondents predict increased (on average, 46 percent) capital expenditures in 2021, 16 percent said their capital spending would decrease (on average, 23.9 percent), and 57 percent expect no change in spend in 2021. The 11 industries expecting increases in capital expenditures in 2021 compared to 2020 — listed in order — are: Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Services
Services purchasing and supply executives expect a capital-expenditures increase of 5.7 percent in 2021 compared to 2020. The 31 percent of members expecting to spend more predict an average increase of 29 percent, 11 percent anticipate an average decrease of 29.9 percent, and 58 percent expect to spend the same on capital expenditures in 2021. The 13 industries expecting an increase in capital expenditures — listed in order — are: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Educational Services; Other Services; and Retail Trade.

PRICES — Changes Between End of 2020 and May 2021

Manufacturing
In the December 2020 forecast, respondents predicted an increase of 2.5 percent in prices paid during the first four months of 2021; they report prices increased by 8.3 percent. The 74 percent who say their prices are higher now than at the end of 2020 report an average increase of 11.4 percent, while the 2 percent who report lower prices indicate an average decrease of 4.8 percent. The remaining 23 percent report no change for the period. All 18 manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid for the first part of 2021 — listed in order — are: Fabricated Metal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Petroleum & Coal Products.

Services
Services respondents report that their purchases in the first four months of this year cost an average of 4.9 percent more than at the end of 2020. This is 1.2 percentage points higher than the 3.7-percent increase predicted in December 2020. Sixty percent of services respondents report that prices increased, on average, 8.6 percent during the first part of 2021, 2 percent report price decreases of, on average, 9.9 percent and 38 percent indicate no change. All 18 industries are reporting an increase in prices paid in the first part of 2021 — listed in order — are: Utilities; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Mining; Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information.

PRICES — Predicted Changes Between End of 2020 and End of 2021

Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect a net average prices increase of 8.1 percent for all of 2021, compared to the end of 2020. With respondents reporting a prices increase of 8.3 percent through May 2021, prices are projected to ease slightly over the rest of the year. Seventy-four percent of respondents project prices to increase, on average, 11.1 percent for the full year, 3 percent anticipate a decrease of, on average, 3.7 percent, and 24 percent expect no change. All 18 industries expecting price increases for all of 2021 — listed in order — are: Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Petroleum & Coal Products.

Services
For 2021, services respondents expect prices to increase, on average, 4.9 percent compared to the end of 2020. With respondents reporting an increase of 4.9 percent through May 2021, prices are projected to hold steady over the rest of the year. Sixty-three percent of respondents anticipate increases of, on average, 8.3 percent, 3 percent of respondents expect decreases of, on average, 12 percent, and 34 percent do not expect prices to change. All 18 industries predicting price increases for all of 2021 — listed in order — are: Other Services; Utilities; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Public Administration; Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; and Finance & Insurance.

EMPLOYMENT

Employment – Predicted Changes Between End of 2020 and End of 2021

Manufacturing
ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents forecast that manufacturing employment will increase by 2.8 percent by the end of 2021, compared to the end of 2020. Thirty-nine percent of respondents expect employment to be, on average, 9.3 percent higher, 12 percent predict employment to decrease, on average, 7.3 percent, and 49 percent expect their employment levels to be unchanged. The 15 industries projecting employment growth during 2021 — listed in order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Wood Products; Machinery; Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Paper Products.

Services
ISM’s Services Business Survey Committee respondents forecast that employment will increase 2.4 percent through the end of 2021. For the remaining months of 2021, 36 percent expect employment to increase, on average, 9.9 percent, 7 percent anticipate employment to decrease, on average,15.7 percent, and 57 percent expect no change in employment levels. The 16 industries anticipating increases in employment — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Information; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Mining and Retail Trade.

BUSINESS REVENUES

Business Revenues Comparison — 2021 vs. 2020

Manufacturing
Increased revenue is expected this year, as purchasing and supply management executives predict an overall net increase of 7.2 percent compared to 2020. This is 0.3 percentage point higher than the 6.9-percent increase forecast in December 2020, and 8.2 percentage points higher than the 1.3-percent decrease reported for 2020 compared to 2019. Fifty-nine percent of respondents say that revenues for 2021 will increase, on average, 13.8 percent, 7 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 13.3 percent, and 34 percent forecast no change. All 18 manufacturing industries are expecting increases in revenue in 2021 — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; and Petroleum & Coal Products.

Services
This year, services purchasing and supply management executives predict an overall net increase of 5.4 percent in sector business revenue compared to 2020. This is 3.8 percentage points higher than the 1.6-percent increase forecast in December 2020, and 10.2 percentage points higher than the 4.8-percent decrease reported for 2020 compared to 2019. Forty-eight percent of respondents indicate revenues for 2021 will increase, on average, 15 percent, 11 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 16.6 percent, and 41 percent expect no change. The 16 services industries expecting revenue increases in 2021, listed in order are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Construction; and Public Administration.

SUMMARY

Manufacturing

• Operating rate is 88.3 percent of normal capacity.
• Production capacity is expected to increase 6.6 percent in 2021.
• Capital expenditures are expected to increase 8.7 percent in 2021.
• Prices paid increased 8.3 percent through May 2021.
• Prices of raw materials are expected to increase a total of 8.1 percent for all of 2021, indicating an expected decrease of 0.2 percent in prices for the rest of the year.
• Manufacturing employment is expected to increase 2.8 percent in 2021.
• Manufacturing revenue is expected to increase 7.2 percent in 2021.
• The manufacturing sector is expected to grow in 2021.

Services

• Operating rate is 89.4 percent of normal capacity.
• Production capacity is expected to increase 2.3 percent in 2021.
• Capital expenditures are expected to increase 5.7 percent in 2021.
• Prices paid increased 4.9 percent through May 2021.
• Prices of raw materials are expected to increase a total of 4.9 percent for all of 2021, indicating expectations that prices will hold steady for the rest of the year.
• Services employment is expected to increase 2.4 percent in 2021.
• Services revenue is expected to increase 5.4 percent in 2021.
• The services sector is projected to grow in 2021.