According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2023, the UK is expected to lose 3,200 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in 2023, which is higher than the projected loss of 3,000 for Russia. This puts the UK in third place for the largest number of millionaires lost globally, behind China (13,500) and India (6,500). It’s worth noting that this figure is double the net exodus of 1,600 millionaires seen in the previous year. The report, compiled by Henley & Partners, focuses on the net inflows and outflows of dollar millionaires, specifically those with an investable wealth of USD 1 million or more who relocate to or emigrate from a country. It’s important to point out that these figures only include HNWIs who have moved and stayed in their new country for over six months a year. All HNWI figures are rounded to the nearest 100.
“Down Under” back on top
In 2023, it is predicted that Australia will have the largest number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), with a net inflow of 5,200. The UAE is expected to come in second place, despite its record-breaking influx in 2022, with 4,500 new millionaires arriving this year. Singapore is expected to have its highest net inflow on record, ranking third with 3,200 HNWIs, followed by the US with an expected net influx of 2,100 millionaires.
Switzerland and Canada are ranked 5th and 6th on the list of countries with the biggest net inflow of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in 2021, with 1,800 and 1,600 HNWIs, respectively. Greece, France, Portugal, and New Zealand also made it to the Top 10 list with 1,200, 1,000 (doubling last year’s net intake of 500 millionaires), 800, and 700 HNWIs, respectively. Israel is expected to drop out of the Top 10, as its net inflow of millionaires is predicted to decrease by almost half, from 1,100 in 2022 to just 600 this year.
Dr. Juerg Steffen, CEO of Henley & Partners, says there’s been a steady growth in millionaire migration over the past decade, with global figures for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 122,000 and 128,000, respectively. “In general, wealth migration trends look set to revert to pre-pandemic patterns this year, with the notable exceptions of former top wealth magnets, the UK and the US.”
Brexit a bad bet for Britain
In 2017, after the Brexit referendum in 2016, the UK experienced a significant net outflow of people with high net worth. Before that, the country had a net positive inflow of such individuals. Though the net losses decreased slightly from 2017 to 2019, the latest forecast for 2023 predicts a much larger number of millionaires leaving the country.
Prof. Trevor Williams, former Chief Economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial, says, “Whatever one may think about the merits of Brexit, this cohort is voting with its feet. Coupled with the policy change to remove permanent non-domiciled taxpayer status, Brexit has made the UK less hospitable and welcoming to HNWIs.” Sunita Singh-Dalal of Hourani & Partners agrees that “the recent unsettling British ‘Non-Dom debate’ triggered by unprecedented political volatility, coupled with rising debt, a dysfunctional healthcare system, high crime rates, and a general sense of lingering malaise, has clearly tarnished the luster of London.”
The appeal of another financial giant, the US, is also dwindling fast. America is notably less popular among migrating millionaires than pre-Covid, owing in part to the threat of higher taxes. The country still attracts more HNWIs than it loses to emigration, with a net inflow of 2,100 projected for 2023, although this is a staggering drop from 2019 levels, which saw a net inflow of 10,800 millionaires.
The other big losers in 2023
As it has for the past decade, China continues to lose the largest number of dollar millionaires each year to migration. Andrew Amoils, Head of Research at New World Wealth, explains that “general wealth growth in China has been slowing over the past few years, which means that the recent outflows could be more damaging than usual.” Although the second-biggest loser globally, India’s net exit numbers are predicted to drop to 6,500 in 2023 compared to last year (7,500), and as Amoils points out, “these outflows are not particularly concerning as India produces far more new millionaires than it loses to migration.”
The top 10 countries projected to have the highest net loss of millionaires in 2023 are the UK, with 3,200, followed by Russia, with 3,000 (which could increase to 8,500 due to the war in Ukraine). Brazil has 1,200, and Hong Kong (SAR China) has 1,000, which is less than half of the actual net outflow in 2022. South Korea has 800, which is double the net outflow in 2022, while Mexico has 700, South Africa has 500, and Japan has 300 compared to last year’s net loss of 100.
Award-winning journalist Misha Glenny says the lessons for those who hope to attract HNWIs are clear. “Political stability is the key metric, together with low taxation regimes and personal freedom. Until the Russo–Ukrainian war comes to an end, both countries will continue to export HNWIs, and this will remain the single largest driver of relocation. But with elections due in many key Western countries in the next 18 months, other HNWIs may wait until their outcome, notably in the US and the UK, before making their choice.”
