Frost & Sullivan’s recent analysis, Transformative Mega Trends in the United States through 2030, examines the complex intersections of social, education, work, political, economic, and urbanization trends set to converge in the next decade. Social trends will be the biggest drivers of disruption, including the evolution of millennials, the rise of Gen Z, growth of the elderly demographic, expanding Hispanic and Asian populations, and income divides. While the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted the US gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, it is set to remain positive throughout the remainder of the decade.
“As the US marches into the next decade on the heels of COVID, the country is set to undergo dramatic transformations in the way Americans work and live. Social forces are set to bring changes in the country, and Millennials will remain the largest age group the US has ever seen (26.6% in 2030), ushering in a dramatic national shift as this population moves into leadership positions, family roles, and suburban living,” said Lauren Martin-Taylor, Principal Consultant at Frost & Sullivan. “Gen Z will be the second-largest demographic at 24.6% of the population, driving developments in digital requirements as they age into secondary education and enter the workplace.”
Taylor added: “Education is undergoing a revolution in terms of higher education and enterprise-based education as companies focus on adjusting to a more automated working environment. New technologies, greater personalization, and various formats, such as boot camps, will play a significant role. Also, Hispanics will reach 21.1% of the US population in 2030. The power of this population will permeate throughout educational institutions and workplaces and may generate a leading Democratic or Republican presidential nominee.”
Key Mega Trends include:
- Social: By 2030, one in five Americans will be more than 65 years old, driving changes in living solutions, leisure activities, and healthcare. Additionally, single women, making up 45% of working females, will wield significant influence and drive spending power in the industries that cater to them.
- Education: COVID-19, the pupil cliff, job automation, and emerging technologies are driving a new era in education that is more practical, personalized, and ongoing. Today, only 29% of students and teachers agree that content is personalized. A significant shift toward personalized learning could result in an 11% increase in the high school graduation rate by 2030 and an additional 550,000 college degrees attained.
- Future of Work: The US labor force is expected to increase to 173 million workers by 2030, but the participation rate is expected to drop slightly to 64.9%. The jump in workers who began telecommuting during the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have lasting elevated effects, with about 40% of workers doing some or all of their primary job from home in 2030.
- Politics: Today’s political polarization may lead to diverse possibilities that could include further extremism and negative consequences or a return to moderation. Advances in technology that support remote or mobile ballot casting could shift voting patterns.
- Urbanization: The United States will have five mega regions, dominated by the New York mega region with 21.6 million citizens. The Los Angeles mega region will have 14 million citizens. The economic power of these regions is greater than that of France or the United Kingdom. The suburbs are expected to comprise 57% of the population, increasing by 7.9% between 2020 and 2030. Alternately, the percent of citizens living in rural regions is expected to shrink to 12%.
- Economics: Economic policies such as the CARES Act combined with recent tax reductions will put the United States in a challenging economic situation, particularly if faced with future crises such as a recession or another pandemic. California, Texas, New York, and Florida are projected to have the largest state economies in 2030, while Utah, North Dakota, Washington, and Nevada will grow the fastest.
Transformative Mega Trends in the United States through 2030 is the latest addition to Frost & Sullivan’s TechVision Group research and analyses available through the Frost & Sullivan Leadership Council, which helps organizations identify a continuous flow of growth opportunities to succeed in an unpredictable future.
