Several U.S. states are at risk of disproportionate effects from rising global trade tensions, as new tariffs threaten export demand, according to a new study examining state-level trade performance.
The research highlights which states generate the strongest export surpluses per capita, revealing how exposed certain regional economies may be if international trade slows amid tariff policies introduced under President Donald Trump.
According to the study, Louisiana ranks as the best state for exporting goods in the United States, posting a trade surplus of $2,853.71 per resident. With exports far exceeding imports, the state has more to lose than any other if foreign demand weakens.
The analysis was conducted using demand-planning software by Algo and examined average annual import and export data from the International Trade Administration for 2019-2023. States were ranked by their average per-capita net export surplus, using population data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Louisiana leads the nation with an export-to-import ratio of 2.7. The state recorded average annual exports of $20.83 billion and imports of $7.71 billion, resulting in an annual surplus of $13.12 billion. On a per-capita basis, this figure is more than four times that of the second-ranked state.
North Dakota ranks second, despite much smaller overall trade volumes. The state posted an export-to-import ratio of 1.6, exporting $1.51 billion annually and importing $948 million. This resulted in a per-resident surplus of $708.54, underscoring the strength of its specialized export economy.
In third place is Texas, which recorded the largest raw trade surplus in the country at $15.15 billion per year. Texas exports averaged $92.82 billion annually compared with $77.67 billion in imports. When adjusted for population, the surplus is $484.11 per resident, placing the state fourth on a per-capita basis.
Oregon ranks fourth, with an annual export surplus of $1.93 billion, or $452.72 per capita. The state maintained an export-to-import ratio of 1.38 during the five-year period.
Nebraska rounds out the top five, with a surplus of $772.2 million annually and an export-to-import ratio of 1.65. This equates to $385.05 per resident, underscoring the strength of its trade balance relative to population size.
Other high-performing states include Iowa, West Virginia, Alaska, Wyoming, and South Dakota, each maintaining positive per-capita export surpluses.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, New Jersey ranks as the worst state for exporting goods. With an export-to-import ratio of just 0.32, the state recorded an average annual trade deficit of $23.02 billion, or a negative $2,423.19 per resident. Illinois, Tennessee, Michigan, and Georgia also recorded among the largest per-capita trade deficits nationwide.
Sanjeev Balasubramanian, senior vice president of solution architecture at Algo, said the findings reveal stark differences in how states participate in global trade.
“These results show there’s a lot of variation in export performance across states, with the top performers typically featuring specialized economies focused on natural resources, agriculture, or strategic port facilities,” he said. “What’s particularly interesting is how some smaller states, like North Dakota, achieve strong export-to-import ratios, showing that population size does not dictate trade success.”
As tariffs and geopolitical trade pressures continue to evolve, analysts warn that states heavily reliant on export surpluses could face increased economic risk if demand from international markets declines.
