BUSINESS AND MONEY
CEO confidence recovered in the third quarter after collapsing in Q2, but fell short of signaling a return to optimism
The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence™, in collaboration with The Business Council, has shown a noticeable rebound in the third quarter of 2025, rising to 49 — a significant increase from the previous quarter’s low of 34. This upward movement suggests a recovery in sentiment, though it still reflects more negative than positive responses, as indicated by the threshold of 50.
The survey, conducted between July 14 and July 28, involved 122 CEOs and revealed that while confidence has improved, a sense of caution lingers. “The recovery in CEO confidence is a welcome sign after the steep decline in Q2; however, it does not yet indicate a return to full optimism,” stated Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. The improvement is seen as part of an ongoing trend following easing tensions from tariff disputes between the US and China and positive developments in trade negotiations.
Notably, all three components that make up the Confidence measure displayed improvements. CEOs displayed a particularly sharp recovery in their assessment of current economic conditions. At the same time, their expectations for both the economy and their industries over the next six months also improved. Despite these positive signs, fears of a recession within the next 12 to 18 months fell significantly, dropping to 36% from an alarming 83% earlier in the year.
In the realm of business risks, trade, and tariff anxieties are now deemed less critical, ranking third behind geopolitical tensions and cyber threats, which remain top concerns for CEOs. Interestingly, the survey also revealed a growing challenge in finding qualified workers, with more CEOs experiencing difficulty in hiring compared to prior quarters. For the fifth consecutive…
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Gold's bull run: Insights from Tor Martin Flesvik on sustained gains amid fiscal concerns
Tor Martin Flesvik isn’t ready to call it quits on gold just yet.
The Partner at Knightsbridge Associates opened his recent market commentary with a tongue-in-cheek reference to Austin Powers’ Goldmember: “I love gold! The look of it! The smell of it! The taste of it! The texture!” But his message to investors is dead serious: Don’t be so quick to cash out of the precious metal.
With gold hovering near $3,400 an ounce in August, marking a 145% surge from its November 2022 lows, many fund managers are looking to book profits. “This is not an unreasonable move, given that the current bull run has yielded approximately 145% gains,” Flesvik acknowledges in his note to clients.
But he’s urging restraint. “However, I would caution against acting too hastily,” he writes. “While much of the momentum may have waned, further gains could still be forthcoming.”
What sets Flesvik apart from the crowd is his contrarian take on what’s actually propelling gold higher. While most analysts point to inflation fears, he’s having none of it.
“The prevailing belief that gold prices are primarily driven by inflation is misguided,” Flesvik states bluntly. “In my view, this bull run has little to do with inflation.”
The numbers…
Healthcare spending rises over five years in the U.S., but takes a smaller slice of salaries in most states
A recent study by Steno Health has revealed significant findings regarding healthcare spending in the United States over the past five years. While healthcare costs have steadily risen, many Americans are spending a smaller percentage of their salaries on these expenses compared to previous years.
The analysis highlights that healthcare costs increased by $1,589, or 20.9%, reaching an average of $9,195 per person in 2023. Despite this growth in expenses, the proportion of income spent on healthcare decreased from 14% in 2019 to 13% in 2023, largely due to a notable increase in wages.
The average annual salary rose from $55,567 to $69,418 during this period, marking a 24.9% increase. This wage growth has resulted in a reduced financial burden on households, despite rising healthcare prices. “The data shows a surprising bright spot in healthcare affordability,” said Alex Milani, medical director at Steno Health. “Though medical costs keep climbing, they’re taking a smaller bite out of the average paycheck.”
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Private sector employment increased by 104,000 jobs in July 2025; Annual pay was up 4.4%
By Helen Roscha / Enterprise EditorThe latest ADP National Employment Report indicates positive momentum in the U.S. labor market, revealing that private sector employment increased by 104,000 jobs in July. This growth is accompanied by an overall 4.4 percent increase in annual pay, reflecting a robust economic landscape.
Produced by ADP Research in partnership with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, the ADP National Employment Report serves as a comprehensive measure of the labor market based on anonymized weekly payroll data derived from over 25 million private-sector employees across the nation. The report also captures nearly 14.8 million individual pay change observations each month, offering a detailed and high-frequency overview of employment trends.
Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, commented, “Our hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy. Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient.”
Change in U.S. Private Employment: 104,000
Change by Industry
– Goods-producing: 31,000
- Natural resources/mining 9,000
- Construction 15,000
- Manufacturing 7,000
– Service-providing: 74,000
- Trade/transportation/utilities 18,000
- Information 9,000
- Financial activities 28,000
- Professional/business services 9,000
- Education/health services -38,000
- Leisure/hospitality 46,000
- Other services 2,000
Change by U.S. Regions
– Northeast: -18,000
- New England -13,000
- Mid-Atlantic -5,000
– Midwest: 18,000
- East North Central 6,000
- West North Central 12,000
– South: 43,000
- South Atlantic 44,000
- East South Central 18,000
- West South Central -19,000
– West: 75,000
- Mountain 32,000
- Pacific 43,000
Change by Establishment Size
– Small establishments: 12,000
-
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On a quarterly basis, home prices rose 0.3 percent and 2.0 percent in Q2 2025 on a seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted basis, respectively
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