BUSINESS AND MONEY
Inflation has been running hot for a prolonged period and while some relief from the heat is evident, consumers are exhausted from historically high food prices and now exhibiting greater frugality
U.S. consumers are gassed when it comes to their stamina for paying historically high food prices. Having borne the brunt of a protracted post-pandemic inflation runup with extraordinary resilience, Americans have finally hit the wall.
Over the past five years, a series of macro factors have catapulted prices higher, weighing on consumers’ wallets and testing their endurance. These hurdles included geopolitical crises, severe drought, higher restaurant overhead and wages, rising interest rates, and higher inflation throughout the supply chain.
As a result, food inflation jumped 25% from 2019 to the end of 2023. However, the additional inflation we have seen in the first half of 2024, albeit far more modest, has been the tipping point. Many consumers who continued to spend in the face of 40-year highs in food prices are now pulling back and reevaluating their budgets.
“The consumer is waving the white flag on food inflation,” said Tom Bailey, senior consumer foods analyst at Rabobank. “With an added 2% in price hikes in 2024 coupled with the cost disparity between dining out and cooking at home at its widest margin in history, we’re seeing heightened fatigue and frugality.”
Indeed, while the overall pace of inflation has moderated to more normal levels since last summer, prices are still moving higher. The 2024 Rabobank BBQ Index, which measures the cost of staple ingredients for a 10-person barbecue, shows that it will cost $99 to host a cookout on the Fourth of July this year, up from $97 last year and $73 in 2018 (see chart: Staying Hot). This year, beer, beef, soda and lettuce account for a hefty 64% of total barbecue cost (see chart: Barbecue Breakdown)….
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New National Institute on Retirement Security Research examines the role of pension plans in sustaining a robust public safety workforce
As state and local governments across the nation continue to struggle to fill public safety positions, new research from the National Institute on Retirement Security (NIRS) explores how defined benefit pension plans are a critical workforce management tool for public safety employers.
The Role of Defined Benefit Pensions in Recruiting and Retaining Public Safety Professionals examines data from a nationally representative sample of 28 police and fire pension plans, as well as national datasets. The analysis finds that a majority of these pension plans expect 75 percent or more of current employees to retire from the plan, and more than half of new hires (52 percent) are projected to stay until retirement. The analysis also finds that police officers have an average tenure of 18 years, firefighters have an average of 20 years, and all public safety workers combined have an average of 17.6 years of service. This retention rate contrasts sharply with the private sector where the median tenure in 2022 was 4.1 years.
The research finds that after the fifth year of service, public safety employee turnover flattens and is incredibly low until a public safety worker reaches retirement eligibility. This data indicates that pension plans are working…
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or "leads"—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.5 percent in May 2024 to 101.2 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in April. Over the six-month period between November 2023 and May 2024, the LEI fell by 2.0 percent—a smaller decrease than its 3.4 percent contraction over the previous six months.
“The U.S. LEI fell again in May, driven primarily by a decline in new orders, weak consumer sentiment about future business conditions, and lower building permits,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “While the Index’s six-month growth rate remained firmly negative, the LEI doesn’t currently signal a recession. We project real GDP growth will slow further to under 1 percent (annualized) over Q2 and Q3 2024, as elevated inflation and high interest rates continue to weigh on consumer spending.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.4 percent in May 2024 to 112.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.1 percent in April. The CEI grew 0.6 percent over the six-month period ending May 2024, down from its 1.0 percent increase over the previous six months. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments,…
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U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) Continued to Fall in April 2024
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.6 percent in April 2024 to 101.8 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.3 percent in March. Over the six-month period between October 2023 and April 2024, the LEI contracted by 1.9 percent—a smaller decrease than its 3.5 percent…
After Four Years of Wild Swings From Shortages to Glut, Global Supply Chains Are Now in the Goldilocks Zone
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — rose in April to -0.18, from -0.32 in March, which signals that global supply chains are operating at close to…
Chicago’s Youth Joblessness Rate Worse Than U.S. & Illinois
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After Three Straight Months of Declines, New-Vehicle Prices Reversed Course in April 2024
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Vice President Kamala Harris came to Atlanta for her economic opportunity tour with the 100 Black Men of America, Inc.
By Chris Benbow / Newsroom StaffVice President Kamala Harris, in a significant move, brought her economic opportunity tours to Atlanta to visit the 38th Conference of the 100 Black Men of America, Inc. This pivotal stop was to discuss economic empowerment with the audience, underlining the importance of the event.
The Vice President, in a thought-provoking discussion moderated by entertainer Steve Harvey, emphasized her message on economic empowerment. “It’s about giving people the opportunity to compete, to allow hardworking individuals to not just get by, but to get ahead,” said Vice President Kamala Harris.
It’s crucial to clarify that this visit was solely a conversation about economic opportunity. It was not an endorsement from the 100 Black Men of America, Inc.
The 100 Black Men of America is the world’s largest volunteer network of Black men focused on mentoring minority youth. The national organization began with nine chapters in 1986. The first chapter was founded in New York City in 1963. The 100 Black Men of America is a national alliance of leading African-American men in business, public affairs, and government. Their mission is to improve the quality of life for African Americans, with a specific focus on African-American youth. Since its inception, the organization has grown to more than 4,000 members, with 105 chapters that impact more than 100,000 underserved and underrepresented minority youth every year.
Visit 100blackmen.org for more information on the programs and initiatives of 100 Black Men of America, Inc. and their global network of chapters.
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“Despite global inflation not falling as quickly as forecasters may have hoped, the global economy looks remarkably strong, defying the pressure of higher interest rates,” said Grace Peters, Global Head of Investment Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
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