Former Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s odds to win the 2020 U.S. presidential election saw a notable uptick today on the heels of his VP announcement. Following his selection of California Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate, Biden’s odds spiked nearly 2% overnight.
Hours before his VP announcement, Biden’s odds rested near 59.33% with incumbent Donald Trump at 39.05%. Today, Biden’s projected lead has increased; Bonus.com’s election odds tracker lists Biden at 60.25% while Trump sits at 38.25%. The shift marks a change in trajectory for both candidates: Biden’s odds decreased over the past few weeks, reaching a low point near 58%. Trump, meanwhile, rose to nearly 40% in recent weeks. Biden’s selection of Senator Harris as his Vice Presidential candidate reversed this trend, bringing Biden’s odds to win back above the 60% threshold.
“Biden’s lead over President Trump has increased steadily all summer long, but this obvious, sudden spike in his odds following the announcement of his running mate shows Kamala Harris will be a significant force on the campaign trail and on Election Day,” said Chris Nesi, Bonus.com News Editor.
Bonus.com’s Presidential Election Odds Tracker calculates odds using an aggregated weighted index of odds offered by Betfair, Betway, Smarkets, and PredictIt. The tracker updates every 15 minutes, reflecting changes in real-time. Election odds have become a more reliable predictor of outcomes in recent years as polling and analysis methods have grown more sophisticated, even surpassing the accuracy of polling firms’ findings in many cases.
