The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence™, in collaboration with The Business Council, has shown a noticeable rebound in the third quarter of 2025, rising to 49 — a significant increase from the previous quarter’s low of 34. This upward movement suggests a recovery in sentiment, though it still reflects more negative than positive responses, as indicated by the threshold of 50.
The survey, conducted between July 14 and July 28, involved 122 CEOs and revealed that while confidence has improved, a sense of caution lingers. “The recovery in CEO confidence is a welcome sign after the steep decline in Q2; however, it does not yet indicate a return to full optimism,” stated Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. The improvement is seen as part of an ongoing trend following easing tensions from tariff disputes between the US and China and positive developments in trade negotiations.
Notably, all three components that make up the Confidence measure displayed improvements. CEOs displayed a particularly sharp recovery in their assessment of current economic conditions. At the same time, their expectations for both the economy and their industries over the next six months also improved. Despite these positive signs, fears of a recession within the next 12 to 18 months fell significantly, dropping to 36% from an alarming 83% earlier in the year.
In the realm of business risks, trade, and tariff anxieties are now deemed less critical, ranking third behind geopolitical tensions and cyber threats, which remain top concerns for CEOs. Interestingly, the survey also revealed a growing challenge in finding qualified workers, with more CEOs experiencing difficulty in hiring compared to prior quarters. For the fifth consecutive quarter, the percentage of CEOs anticipating cuts to their workforce rose to 34%. This marks a shift, as for the first time since 2020, those planning to reduce their workforce outnumbered those intending to grow it (27%).
In terms of wage increases, 61% of CEOs indicated plans to raise salaries by 3% or more over the next year, a slight increase from 58% in Q2. Despite the cautious optimism, many CEOs signaled intentions to maintain their capital spending plans, though there was a notable increase in those expecting to cut back on investments.
When addressing cost pressures, the majority of CEOs reported concerns related to suppliers (71%), materials (64%), and technology (63%), with wages also constituting a significant issue at 47%. To mitigate these rising costs, CEOs reiterated their focus on leveraging technology to boost productivity (93%), negotiating with suppliers (89%), and enhancing workforce skills (83%).
Current Economic Conditions
- 34% of CEOs reported worse economic conditions than six months prior, a steep decline from 82% in Q2.
- 22% felt conditions improved, a significant rise from just 2%.
Future Economic Expectations
- Only 30% anticipate worsening economic conditions in the coming six months, down from 64% in the previous quarter.
- Meanwhile, projections for improvement have risen from 18% to 30%.
Overall, while CEO confidence has rebounded, the future remains uncertain as the business landscape continues to face challenges. With geopolitical and cyber risks at the forefront, prudent strategizing will be key as companies navigate these complexities.
