The New Home Lot Supply Index (LSI – single-family vacant developed lots reflecting rate absorption via housing starts) for 4Q24 loosened quarter-over-quarter for the second quarter, while lot supply tightened year-over-year.
“Land and lot supply is at the healthiest levels we’ve seen in years,” said Ali Wolf, chief economist with Zonda. “Between 2021 and 2022, builders expressed concerns about a potential shortage of buildable lots due to rapid demand growth. However, lot supply surged in late 2022 and early 2023 as consumer demand softened while lot development continued. Currently, the market is characterized by steady growth in both lot supply and new housing starts.”
- The LSI came in at 60.8 for 4Q24, representing a 1.7% decrease from 4Q23. The 4Q24 data shows a “significantly undersupplied” market nationally, which has been the case since 2017.
- On a quarter-over-quarter basis, supply increased by 5.4% from 3Q24.
Lot supply tightened year-over-year in most major metropolitan areas in 4Q24, with 17 of 30 decreasing, down from 22 last quarter.
- The markets where land supply loosened the most on a year-over-year basis were led by Orlando, San Francisco, and Nashville. In these markets, 4Q starts were mixed compared to this time last year- up 7% in Orlando and up 5% San Francisco, while down 2% in Nashville.
- Three markets are considered appropriately supplied – Austin, Atlanta, and Dallas, while San Antonio is still slightly undersupplied. 4Q housing starts increased year-over-year in three of these markets (Austin was the outlier), and VDLs increased in three as well (minus Atlanta).
Total future lots (delivery over the next 12-18 months) for 4Q24 increased 13.2% year-over-year, but were down 6.7% from last quarter. While the year-over-year growth was impressive, note that 4Q23 was a recent trough in our data. Total upcoming lots were 5.7% higher in 2024 compared to 2023 and 14.4% more in 4Q24 compared to 4Q19.
“Total upcoming lots provide valuable insights into the trajectory of the land and lot markets over the next year, and the outlook is positive,” said Wolf. “Now, all eyes are on housing starts. Assuming consumers can navigate the current environment of persistently high interest rates, we anticipate modest growth in single-family starts during 2025.”
