U.S. Home Prices Show Slower Growth in October 2024, Led by New York With 7.3% Annual Increase

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) released the October 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices recorded a 3.6% annual gain in October 2024, a slight deceleration from the previous annual gains in 2024.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.6% annual return for October, down from a 3.9% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.8%, down from a 5.2% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.2%, dropping from a 4.6% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.3% increase in October, followed by Chicago and Las Vegas with annual increases of 6.2% and 5.9%, respectively. Tampa posted the smallest year-over-year growth with 0.4%.

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index, 20-City Composite, and 10-City Composite upward trends continued to reverse in October, with a -0.2% drop for the national index, and the 20-City and 10-City Composites saw -0.2% and -0.1% returns for this month, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while both the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported monthly rises of 0.3%.

“New York once again reigns supreme as the fastest-growing housing market with annual returns over double the national average,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “Two markets have dominated the top ranks with New York leading all markets the past six months and San Diego the six months prior. New York is the only market sitting at all-time highs and one of just three markets with gains on the month. Accounting for seasonal adjustments shows a broader rally across the country.

“Our National Index hit its 17th consecutive all-time high, and only two markets – Tampa and Cleveland – fell during the past month,” Luke continued. “The annual returns continue to post positive inflation-adjusted returns but are falling well short of the annualized gains experienced this decade. Markets in Florida and Arizona are rising, but not keeping up with inflation, and are well off the over 10% gains annually from 2020 to present. This has allowed other markets to catch up.

“With the latest data covering the period prior to the election, our national index has shown continued improvement,” Luke continued. “Removing the political uncertainly risk has led to an equity market rally; it will be telling should the similar sentiment occur among homeowners.”

More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to spglobal.com.

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

Table 2 below summarizes the results for October 2024. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.