Housing demand is often discussed in broad terms. People talk about national rent growth, interest rates, construction costs, and population shifts. Those topics matter. But according to Jeff Herter, Rye, NH, the real story starts much closer to the ground.
Jeff Herter, Rye, NH, is a real estate investor and Principal at Providence Real Properties, LLC. He has more than fifteen years of experience investing in and operating multifamily properties across the United States. Before real estate, he built a career in finance, co-founding a relative-value derivatives trading firm and later founding several investment ventures. His background gives him a disciplined approach to studying markets, managing risk, and evaluating long-term housing demand.
“Housing is local before it is national,” Herter says. “You can look at national trends, but the decision to rent or buy usually comes down to work, family, lifestyle, and community.”
Housing Demand Is Built Neighborhood by Neighborhood
The United States faces a clear need for more rental housing. The National Multifamily Housing Council and National Apartment Association have estimated that the country needs 4.3 million new apartments by 2035 to meet demand and address existing shortages.
That number is large. But Herter believes investors and developers need to understand what it means at the local level.
“A national shortage does not tell you which neighborhood needs what type of housing,” he says. “You have to understand the community. Who lives there? Who wants to move there? What is missing?”
For Herter, this is where careful analysis begins. He looks at employment trends, population movement, local services, transportation, and the condition of existing housing. A growing city may need new apartments. A smaller community may need updated workforce housing. An older commercial area may be better suited for adaptive reuse.
The point is not to assume every market needs the same product.
Local Jobs Drive Local Housing Needs
One of the first things Herter studies is employment.
“People need to live near opportunity,” he says. “That does not always mean living next door to the office. It means being connected to the places where people work, earn, and build their lives.”
Job growth can support rental demand, but the type of job growth matters. A market with healthcare, education, logistics, technology, and professional services may have different housing needs than a market dependent on one major employer.
Herter says investors should ask direct questions. Are jobs being created? Are wages supporting local rents? Are workers commuting from too far away because nearby housing is limited? Are businesses struggling to attract employees because housing is too expensive?
Those answers can reveal whether housing demand is real, sustainable, and tied to the community.
Migration Patterns Are Changing the Map
The Census Bureau describes migration and geographic mobility as the movement of people within and across boundaries, including county and state lines. It also tracks population estimates for states, counties, cities, and metro areas, which can help show where demand is growing or slowing.
Herter believes this data matters, but only when paired with local knowledge.
“Migration data can show that people are moving into an area,” he says. “But you still need to understand why they are moving there and whether the community can support that growth.”
Some people move for jobs. Others move for schools, affordability, lifestyle, or proximity to family. Remote and hybrid work patterns have also changed how many renters think about location.
For investors, this means older assumptions may no longer hold. A secondary market that once seemed quiet may now attract renters looking for more space. A downtown market may need to adjust its housing mix. A coastal or lifestyle-driven community may see demand rise, but affordability can become a bigger issue.
Affordability Is a Community Issue
Housing demand is not only about how many people want to live in a place. It is also about whether they can afford to stay there.
Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies reported that in 2022, half of all U.S. renters were cost burdened, meaning 22.4 million renter households spent more than 30 percent of income on rent and utilities.
Herter sees affordability as one of the biggest reasons local analysis matters.
“If rents rise faster than local incomes, you eventually create stress in the community,” he says. “A market may look strong on paper, but if the people who work there cannot afford to live there, that is a warning sign.”
He believes sustainable housing markets need balance. New supply matters. Renovation matters. Adaptive reuse can also play a role when older buildings can be repurposed for better use.
“Sometimes the answer is not only building new,” Herter says. “Sometimes it is improving or rethinking what already exists.”
Adaptive Reuse Can Support Local Needs
Herter has focused part of his work on value-add multifamily and adaptive reuse opportunities. These projects can involve taking underutilized properties and repositioning them for current demand.
He believes this approach can be especially useful in communities where land is limited or older buildings no longer serve their original purpose.
“Every property has a context,” he says. “Before deciding what it should become, you have to understand what the community actually needs.”
An outdated office building may not make sense as office space anymore. A former retail property may be better suited for housing or mixed-use space. An older multifamily property may need targeted improvements rather than a full repositioning.
Herter says the best projects start with local questions, not a preset strategy.
Data Matters, But So Does Observation
Herter’s finance background taught him to respect data. He looks at numbers closely. But he also believes real estate cannot be evaluated by spreadsheet alone.
“You need the data, but you also need to walk the area,” he says. “Look at the properties nearby. Look at the businesses. Look at traffic patterns. Talk to people who know the market.”
This approach helps identify trends before they become obvious. A neighborhood may show early signs of improvement through new businesses, infrastructure investment, or better property maintenance. Another may show risk through vacancies, poor upkeep, or weak local demand.
Herter says both matter.
“The numbers tell part of the story,” he says. “The community tells the rest.”
Long-Term Housing Demand Requires Patience
Herter’s investment style is grounded in discipline and risk management.
“I rely on experience, being conservative with risk, and having an analytical mind,” he says.
That mindset shapes how he views housing demand. He does not believe investors should chase every hot market. Instead, he recommends studying whether demand is supported by real local drivers.
Is the population growing for durable reasons? Are jobs stable? Is supply limited or oversupplied? Are rents aligned with local incomes? Is the neighborhood improving in a practical way?
These questions may seem simple, but Herter believes they help avoid poor decisions.
“There will always be trends,” he says. “The goal is to understand which trends are supported by fundamentals.”
Why Communities Come First
Housing is more than an asset class. It is where people live. It affects families, workers, businesses, and local economies.
For Jeff Herter, Rye, NH, that is why housing demand must be studied from the community level first.
“If you understand the community, you can make better decisions about the property,” he says. “Real estate works best when the investment fits the people and the place.”
In a market where housing needs continue to evolve, that local perspective may be more important than ever.
