A team of Navy weather experts are already hard at work tracking developing storms to shield American service members, ships and shore installations from their fury as the western Pacific starts to gear up for the 2026 typhoon season.
At the heart of these efforts sits the Naval Oceanography Antisubmarine Warfare Center in Yokosuka. The command operates a watch floor that monitors ocean conditions 24 hours a day, every day of the year, providing essential forecasts for the massive U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations.
“On average, a typhoon forms somewhere in the region every three weeks,” said Navy Ensign Ethan J. Tomczyk, a public affairs representative for the center. “When a storm heads toward Japan, we shift into high gear to support base commanders and keep everyone safe.”
During a typical Northern Hemisphere typhoon season, roughly 14 storms make a direct impact on U.S. military sites in the Indo-Pacific. To handle these threats, the center boosts its watch team with extra forecasters whenever a system threatens Japan. Their job includes constantly tracking the storm’s development and issuing timely updates so leaders can make decisions on protective actions.
The forecast process is a combination of satellite imagery, ocean temperature readings and atmospheric data fed into sophisticated computer models. Analysts compare different projections to pinpoint the most likely track and intensity of each developing cyclone.
Navy Petty Officer 2nd Class Celestial Wilson, front left, Navy Seaman Sara Clark, Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Batuhan Vural, back left, Navy Seaman Recruit Corey Ogle and Navy Seaman Andie Miller, all assigned to the Naval Oceanography Antisubmarine Warfare Center in Yokosuka, Japan, pose for a photo on top of the command’s local headquarters, May 27, 2026. The NOAC Yokosuka team tracks the weather to protect sailors, military families, and the places they live and work while also serving as a critical resource for asset protection in the Indo-Pacific region. © James Kimber, Navy
This work is very dependent on close cooperation with other agencies. The center partners regularly with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii to refine predictions and share vital information with decision-makers on the ground.
Petty Officer 2nd Class Celestial Wilson, an aerographer’s mate at the Yokosuka center, explained how the team focuses on timing. “The key piece of information for the public is the onset and offset of destructive winds,” she said. Winds above 50 knots count as destructive, while 34 to 49 knots bring damaging conditions. These details assist in determining Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness levels, providing residents with clear guidance on how much time remains for preparation.
The readiness system runs from TCCOR 5, which means destructive winds could arrive within 96 hours, to TCCOR 1, which indicates destructive winds are imminent or occurring. Each level change is based on the detailed analysis of these Navy forecasters.
The technical work is ongoing behind the scenes, but officials stress that individual preparation remains the most important factor. Families who have already prepared emergency supplies and solid evacuation plans will be able to stay safe without having to rush at the last minute.
As another active storm season begins, the men and women of the Naval Oceanography Antisubmarine Warfare Center continue their quiet, but essential mission. Their steady vigilance helps turn uncertain weather threats into manageable risks, protecting both those at sea, and the communities that support them on shore.
