Global trade continues to show remarkable resilience in 2026. Goods trade grew sharply in the first half of the year, reaching about $13.7 trillion, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The growth, estimated at 12.5 percent quarter-over-quarter, comes amid rising prices and persistent global challenges.
The most recent Global Trade Update (published on 21 July) underscores the prominent position of high-tech sectors. Merchandise trade increased about 12.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026 over the first quarter of 2025, and services trade increased by 10.5 percent. Goods trade added some $1.5 trillion in value terms and services some $500 billion. If this momentum continues without major disruptions in the second half of the year, global trade is on course to hit a new record annual value this year.
UNCTAD’s nowcast for the second quarter shows more growth, with goods trade expected to grow about 6 percent quarter-on-quarter and services 2 percent. This positive momentum is the result of a strong performance in 2025, when total global trade in goods and services reached a record $35 trillion.
The most remarkable feature of the present update is the disproportionate role of high-tech and green transition goods. Trade in sectors related to artificial intelligence and electric vehicles recorded particularly strong growth in the first quarter of 2026. Batteries gained 15 percent, critical energy transition minerals soared 38 percent, information and communication technology products rose 14 percent, semiconductors were up 25 percent, and electric vehicles were up 11 percent. These numbers highlight the role of innovation and the drive for sustainable technologies in transforming trade flows and creating a cushion from wider economic challenges.
The increase in value has been primarily driven by price pressure. Trade inflation was 3.6 percent in the first quarter and is now expected to reach nearly 5 percent in the second quarter. Energy prices are still in the picture, but now they are joined by a spike in metals, fertilizers, and other commodities. This mix of volume growth and higher prices has propelled overall growth. But it has raised concerns about affordability issues and inflation transmission across economies.
Geopolitical risks loom over the outlook
But headwinds are building despite the encouraging figures, UNCTAD warns. Evolving trade policies, renewed tensions and the fragile security situation in the Strait of Hormuz could sustain inflationary pressures and increase trade costs. Geoeconomic fragmentation continues to have uneven effects across regions and sectors.
Developing economies in particular are in a difficult balancing act. Many have benefited from stronger South-South trade and demand in emerging markets, but remain vulnerable to higher energy bills, debt constraints and shifts in global supply chains. The report projects trade momentum to continue through the rest of 2026, but warns that the pace is uncertain.
Policymakers will have to carefully navigate these dynamics. Countries can better reap the rewards of growing trade by fostering diversification, investing in skills and infrastructure, and encouraging inclusive participation in high-growth sectors like technology and green industries.
UNCTAD’s message is one of cautious optimism as global trade adapts to new realities. High-tech goods are the engine of progress today; whether this expansion will be broad-based or increasingly fractured depends on sustained cooperation and smart policy choices. These trends will impact economic opportunities decades from now and need to be monitored carefully by businesses and governments.
