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Optimists Rule: 79% Of Small Business Owners Say No Recession Until Spring 2020 Or Later

Majority Plan To Ride Prosperity Wave, Doubling Down Amid Strong Economy

Published on October 10, 2019

Despite dire predictions from economists of a looming recession, most small business owners remain optimistic, according to, the largest small business network with 4 million+ members.

Most Alignable members polled in a series of Alignable New Voice Of Small Business Surveys predict a recession is at least six months to a year or more away.

Meanwhile, many are redoubling their efforts to earn as much as possible during this still-strong economy. In all, 16,000+ small business owners participated in the polls. Here are the top trends that emerged:

  • Happy, Recession-Free Days Are Here To Stay, At Least For Now: 79% of small business owners who made a prediction, said a recession won’t come until at least March or April of 2020. And 46% predicted a recession is at least a year away. Several added that experts talking so much about a recession induces spending fears among consumers, which could expedite a potential downturn.
  • 2019 Small Biz Sales To Reach New Heights. Further supporting the optimism of Alignable’s recession poll, 74% of small business owners expect to achieve YOY sales spikes of 5% to 50% or more by year’s end. In fact, 19% think 2019 will be their best sales year ever. And 45% expect a revenue boost of at least 20-30%.
  • 51% Of Small Business Owners Engage In Side Hustles. The majority of SMB owners said side jobs have helped them either as they started their businesses or on an ongoing basis. Another 18% are thinking about taking on a side gig now to boost their income.

“It’s encouraging to see the majority of our members buck the fear-based predictions from national economists and Fortune 500 CFOs,” said Alignable’s CEO and Co-founder Eric Groves. “Our experts are in the trenches, making hay while the sun shines, taking on second jobs to drive more income now. That pioneering spirit has fueled our economy for centuries and it’s alive and well with small business owners today.”

Banner Year Expected For Some

A wide variety of small business owners across several industries expect to experience record-breaking sales by the end of the year.

They include travel agents who specialize in nature adventures, a manufacturer of fly fishing gear, event planners, business coaches, accountants, construction companies, and residential, as well as commercial real estate agents.

In contrast, categories anticipating YOY declines are agriculture, dog breeding, high-end art, and some car dealerships.

Vape store owners are experiencing the biggest struggles, expecting sales to plummet by 50 percent or more, given recent bans and negative press around vaping.

Hot Spots Where The Local Business Community Is Thriving

In terms of geography, Quebec, British Columbia, Ontario, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland & Labrador have the highest number of Canadian economic optimists based on Alignable’s polls. Most businesspeople from these provinces anticipate sales boosts of 20% to more than 50% by the end of 2019.

In the U.S., the Top 20 states where optimism about year-end sales is the highest, include: Alaska, Idaho, Hawaii, Kentucky, New Mexico, Utah, New Jersey, Nevada, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Missouri, Indiana, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Colorado, Georgia, New Hampshire and West Virginia.

The only U.S. states or territories that showed significantly less economic enthusiasm include storm-ravaged Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as agricultural hubs including Iowa and Nebraska.

“Despite the optimism in these surveys, some of our members are having a difficult time with the current economy, and those small business owners actually believe we’re already in a recession,” added Alignable’s President and Co-founder Venkat Krishnamurthy. “Yes, they’re in the minority, but the diverging opinions we’ve noticed in some members’ comments mean we should watch holiday season 2019 very closely to see if the optimism holds or if more people start thinking that a major slowdown is imminent.”

SOURCE Alignable